It could be 7 degrees more at the end of the century

Global Warming.

September 17, 2019

According to new simulations, global warming looks much bigger than expected.

Global warming is expected to be more pronounced than expected, regardless of the efforts made to counter it, warned Tuesday French scientists who present new climate simulations that will serve as a basis for the IPCC. About a hundred researchers and engineers, including the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) and Météo-France, participated in this work. They will feed the sixth assessment report of the UN panel of experts on climate, scheduled for 2021-2022.

French scientists produced two different climate models, then subjected to several socio-economic scenarios. "In the worst case scenario, the overall average temperature rise reached 6.5 to 7° C in 2100," according to one presentation. This scenario is based on rapid economic growth fueled by fossil fuels. In the last IPCC 2014 report, the worst case scenario was + 4.8° C compared to the pre-industrial period.

Global warming issues

The most optimistic scenario, "marked by strong international cooperation and giving priority to sustainable development" allows to stay under the goal of 2° C warming, but "just", with "a mitigation effort (.. .) "and" at the cost of temporarily exceeding the 2° C target during the century ". The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 plans to limit global warming well below 2 ° C, or even 1.5° C. Commitments so far taken by the states would lead to + 3° C.

The most optimistic scenario "implies an immediate reduction in CO2 emissions until reaching global carbon neutrality around 2060, as well as an atmospheric CO2 uptake of around 10 to 15 billion tonnes. per year in 2100", which technology does not currently allow. "The average temperature of the planet at the end of the century therefore strongly depends on climate policies that will be implemented now and throughout the 21st century," insist the CNRS, Météo-France and the CEA.

Image above: The evolution of the global average T ° C hides regional disparities shared by the two models @ meteofrance / Cerfacs and @ ipsl_outreach # climat @cea_officiel @CNRS.

This greater warming goes in the same direction as other foreign models. "This could be explained by a stronger climate response to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases than in the 2012 simulations, but the reasons for this increased sensitivity and the degree of confidence in it still need to be assessed." according to a statement.

... but we can isolate a rhythmic elevation and in phase with the observations on the historical period, which gives some confidence in the models to represent the last 150 years.

Global atmospheric temperatures change. Image Credits: CNRS/CEA

French scientists had last bent on this exercise in 2012. Meanwhile, their tools have improved. "We have better models," said Olivier Boucher, director of research at CNRS, AFP. "As computing capacity increases, we have refined the resolution and we also have models that better represent the current climate."

Thanks to this finer scale, researchers have better modeled the consequences of global warming in Western Europe, by focusing on heat waves. "The intensity and frequency of heat waves have increased in recent decades" and "this trend will continue for at least the next two decades, regardless of the scenario considered".

Image above: Evolution of the #arctic icepack: probable summer disappearance at the end of the century # climat @cea_officiel @CNRS.

Related links:

CNRS: http://www.cnrs.fr/

CEA: http://www.cea.fr/english/Pages/Welcome.aspx

Images (mentioned), Text, Credits: AFP/CNRS/CEA/Orbiter.ch Aerospace/Roland Berga.

Greetings, Orbiter.ch

Avalanche Season on Mars

NASA - Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) patch.

Sept. 17, 2019

Every spring the sun shines on the side of the stack of layers at the North Pole of Mars known as the north polar layered deposits. The warmth destabilizes the ice and blocks break loose.

When they reach the bottom of the more than 500 meter tall cliff face, the blocks kick up a cloud of dust. The layers beneath are different colors and textures depending on the amount of dust mixed with ice.

This image was captured on May 29, 2019 by the HiRISE camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft at 13:14 local Mars time.

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO)

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO): http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/MRO/main/index.html

Images Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona/Caption: Candy Hansen/Text: Sarah Loff.

Greetings, Orbiter.ch

Crews Prepare for Swap as Space Research Benefits Humans

ISS - Expedition 60 Mission patch.

September 17, 2019

The six residents aboard the International Space Station continued more biomedical science and rodent research to improve human health on Earth and in space. The Expedition 60 crew is also gearing up for a crew swap beginning next week.

NASA Flight Engineers Christina Koch and Nick Hague started Tuesday drawing their blood samples and spinning them in a centrifuge. The samples were stowed in a science freezer for later analysis to help scientists understand how astronauts adapt to microgravity.

Image above: The six-member Expedition 60 crew is gathered together for dinner inside the galley of the Zvezda service module. Image Credit: NASA.

Koch then spent the rest of the day with crewmates Andrew Morgan of NASA and Luca Parmitano of ESA (European Space Agency) observing space-caused cellular and molecular changes in mice. The rodents’ genetic similarity to humans may provide therapeutic insights into aging and muscle ailments.

Hague is getting ready to return to Earth on Oct. 3 after 203 days in space. He and Commander Alexey Ovchinin are packing gear and familiarizing themselves with the landing procedures they will use inside the Soyuz MS-12 spacecraft. The duo will return to Earth with a new crewmember, Spaceflight Participant Hazzaa Ali Almansoori, who will arrive at the orbiting lab next week for an eight-day stay.

International Space Station (ISS). Animation Credit: NASA

Almansoori, from the United Arab Emirates, is joining NASA astronaut Jessica Meir and Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg Skripochka for a launch to the station on Sept. 25. The trio will lift off inside the Soyuz MS-15 spacecraft from Kazakhstan for a five-hour and 48-minute ride to the aft-end of the Zvezda service module where they will dock. Meir and Skripochka will stay in space until April of 2020 and return to Earth with Morgan.

Related links:

Expedition 60: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/expedition60/index.html

Astronauts adapt to microgravity: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=954

Aging and muscle ailments: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7992

Zvezda service module: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/zvezda-service-module.html

Space Station Research and Technology: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/index.html

International Space Station (ISS): https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/main/index.html

Image (mentioned), Animation (mentioned), Text, Credits: NASA/Mark Garcia.

Greetings, Orbiter.ch

Space Biology, Brad Pitt Interview as New Crew Preps for Launch

ISS - Expedition 60 Mission patch.

September 16, 2019

The six Expedition 60 crewmembers aboard the International Space Station began the workweek exploring how microgravity affects a variety of biological systems. Back on Earth, three new crewmates are in final preparations for next week’s launch to the orbiting lab from Kazakhstan.

Flight Engineers Nick Hague and Andrew Morgan started Monday morning collecting and stowing their blood and urine samples for later analysis. Afterward, the pair joined fellow NASA astronaut Christina Koch for body mass measurements using a device that applies a known force on a crewmember. The resulting acceleration is used to accurately calculate an astronaut’s mass.

Image above: Actor Brad Pitt called up to to the International Space Station today and had a conversation with NASA astronaut Nick Hague. Image Credit: NASA TV.

Hague spoke to actor Brad Pitt today who called up to the station from NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C. They talked about Pitt’s upcoming movie and discussed what it is like to live in space.

Koch also assisted ESA (European Space Agency) astronaut Luca Parmitano with a bioelectrical sensor that measures changes in body composition to determine the effectiveness of space nutrition. The duo, along with Morgan, then turned to rodent research the rest of the day for insights into aging and disease therapies.

Commander Alexey Ovchinin collaborated with fellow cosmonaut Alexander Skvortsov for cardiology research during an exercise session Monday morning. The commander then inspected hardware inside the Electromagnetic Levitator that enables the safe research of materials exposed to high temperatures. Skvortsov moved onto ventilation maintenance in the Zvezda service module. The duo wrapped up the day with an Earth photography session.

Space-to-Earth call with NASA astronaut Nick Hague & Actor Brad Pitt

The next crew to launch to the station is at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan for final mission training. Expedition 61 crewmembers Jessica Meir of NASA and Oleg Skripochka of Roscosmos will blast off on Sept. 25 aboard the Soyuz MS-15 spacecraft with Spaceflight Participant Hazzaa Ali Almansoori. The trio from the U.S., Russia and the U.A.E. will take a four-orbit, near six-hour ride in space before docking to the aft port of Zvezda.

Almansoori will return to Earth on Oct. 3 aboard the Soyuz MS-12 spacecraft with Hague and Ovchinin. Meir and Skripochka will orbit Earth until the spring of 2020.

Ground personnel are fueling the Soyuz MS-15 crew ship and integrating the spacecraft to its launch vehicle this week. The rocket with the Soyuz on top will roll out to its launch pad early in the morning on Sept. 23.

Related links:

Expedition 60: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/expedition60/index.html

Space nutrition: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7875

Electromagnetic Levitator: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Facility.html?#id=1853

Zvezda service module: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/zvezda-service-module.html

Earth photography session: https://www.energia.ru/en/iss/researches/study/14.html

Space Station Research and Technology: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/index.html

International Space Station (ISS): https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/main/index.html

Image (mentioned), Video (NASA TV), Text, Credits: NASA/Mark Garcia.

Best regards, Orbiter.ch

Hubble Glimpses Faint Galaxy

NASA - Hubble Space Telescope patch.

Sept. 16, 2019

This image, taken with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, focuses on an object named UGC 695, which is located 30 million light-years away within the constellation Cetus (the Sea Monster), also known as the Whale. A bounty of diverse background galaxies is also visible in this image.

UGC 695 is a low-surface-brightness (LSB) galaxy. These galaxies are so faint that their brightness is less than the background brightness of Earth’s atmosphere, which makes them tricky to observe. This low brightness is the result of the relatively small number of stars within them — most of the normal, or “baryonic,” matter in these galaxies exists in the form of huge clouds of gas and dust. The stars are also distributed over a relatively large area.

LSB galaxies, like dwarf galaxies, have a high fraction of dark matter relative to the number of stars they contain. Astronomers still debate about how LSB galaxies formed in the first place.

Hubble Space Telescope (HST)

For more information about Hubble, visit:

http://hubblesite.org/

http://www.nasa.gov/hubble

http://www.spacetelescope.org/

Text Credits: ESA (European Space Agency)/NASA/Rob Garner/Image, Animation,  Credits: ESA/Hubble & NASA, D. Calzetti.

Greetings, Orbiter.ch

Space Station Science Highlights: Week of September 9, 2019

ISS - Expedition 60 Mission patch.

Sept. 16, 2019

Some of the recent scientific studies conducted on the International Space Station looked at how humans adapt to life in space and the use of DNA and RNA sequencing of microbes. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) scrubbed the scheduled Sept. 10 launch of its cargo ship H-II Transfer Vehicle-8 (HTV-8) due to a fire on or near the launch pad at Tanegashima Space Center. A relaunch date has not yet been determined. The space station provides a platform for long-duration research on how living in microgravity affects the human body and testing technologies for traveling farther into deep space, which supports Artemis, NASA’s plans to go forward to the Moon and on to Mars.

Image above: Expedition 60 members, including European Space Agency (ESA) astronaut Luca Parmitano and NASA astronauts Christina Koch, Andrew Morgan and Nick Hague, gather in the space station’s cupola to take photographs of Earth. Image Credit: NASA.

Here are details on some of the science conducted by the Expedition 60 crew on the orbiting laboratory during the week of Sept. 9:

Documenting human spaceflight response before, during, and after flight

Standard Measures captures a consistent set of measures from crew members to characterize how their bodies adapt to living in space. The aim is to create a database of measures from all crew members in the International Space Station Program. The data enable high-level monitoring of the effectiveness of countermeasures and meaningful interpretation of health and performance outcomes, while supporting future research on planetary missions. Crew members conducted surveys and tests and collected samples for this investigation.

Sequencing Microbial DNA in Space

Animation above: NASA astronaut Christina Koch transfers samples for the BEST investigation, which identifies microbes collected from different locations in the space station and identifies them using DNA sequencing. Animation Credit: NASA.

The BEST investigation studies the use of DNA sequencing to identify unknown microbial organisms and to understand how humans, plants and microbes adapt to living in space. Crew members isolate microbes from various locations and identify them using a swab-to-sequencer process that does not require cultivation of the organisms. Additional experiment objectives include comparing mutation rates of bacteria grown on Earth and in space and demonstrating that it is possible to sequence ribonucleic acid (RNA) isolated from any organism directly. This work uses the Biomolecule Sequencer and Genes in Space hardware already on the space station. The crew transferred samples for the investigation to new media.

Measuring Crew Neutron Radiation Exposure

The crew retrieved the eight dosimeter bubble detectors for the RADI-N2 investigation from the Russian crew and deployed them in Node 1, which is connected to the U.S. Lab module. This Canadian Space Agency investigation characterizes the neutron radiation environment aboard the space station to help define the risk to the health of crew members and provide data for development of advanced protective measures for future spaceflight. Neutrons make up 10 to 30 percent of the biologically effective radiation exposure in low-Earth orbit. The bubble detectors detect only neutrons, ignoring all other types of radiation.

Capturing Life Aboard the ISS on Film

Crew members recorded footage of several activities this week for The ISS Experience, which creates virtual reality videos covering crew life, execution of science and the international partnerships involved on the space station. The videos educate a variety of audiences about space station life and research and could inspire additional microgravity research to benefit people on Earth and future space missions. The crew films less than four hours of footage each week and every few weeks transfers this footage onto solid-state drives for storage and downlinking.

Other investigations on which the crew performed work:

- Fluid Shifts measures how much fluid shifts from the lower to the upper body and in or out of cells and blood vessels in microgravity in an effort to determine how these shifts affect fluid pressure in the head, vision and eye structures.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=1126

- Space Moss determines how microgravity affects the growth, development and other features of moss. Tiny plants without roots, mosses need only a small area for growth, an advantage for their potential use in space and future bases on the Moon or Mars.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7892

- Rodent Research-17 (RR-17) uses young and old mice to evaluate the physiological, cellular and molecular effects of microgravity and spaceflight.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7992

- The Micro-15 investigation examines the mechanisms behind observations that microgravity affects gene expression and stem cell differentiation and proliferation, using three-dimensional cultures of mammalian stem cells.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7653

Image above: The Microgravity Crystals experiment leverages extensive protein crystallization work on the space station, significantly increasing the likelihood of successful growth. NASA astronaut Christina Koch observes and photographs samples grown for the investigation. Image Credit: NASA.

- The Microgravity Crystals investigation crystallizes a membrane protein that is integral to tumor growth and cancer survival.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7977

- Food Acceptability examines changes in the appeal of food aboard the space station during long-duration missions. “Menu fatigue” from repeatedly consuming a limited choice of foods may contribute to the loss of body mass often experienced by crew members, potentially affecting astronaut health, especially as mission length increases.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7562

- Probiotics studies whether beneficial bacteria, or probiotics, can improve the intestinal microbiota of crew members and help improve their immune function on long-duration space missions.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=2047

- UAE Palm Growth examines germination of palm tree seeds in order to determine the best conditions for generating tissue samples for research and observes and documents root growth in microgravity for educational purposes.
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=8080

Space to Ground: Counting Down: 09/13/2019

Related links:

Expedition 60: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/expedition60/index.html

H-II Transfer Vehicle-8 (HTV-8): https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/structure/elements/htv.html

Standard Measures: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7711

BEST: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7687

RADI-N2: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=874

The ISS Experience: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/explorer/Investigation.html?#id=7877

Spot the Station: https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/

Space Station Research and Technology: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/index.html

International Space Station (ISS): https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/main/index.html

Images (mentioned), Animation (mentioned), Video (NASA), Text, Credits: NASA/Michael Johnson/Vic Cooley, Lead Increment Scientist Expedition 60.

Greetings, Orbiter.ch

Space Station science: learning from Luca

ESA - Beyond Mission logo.

16 September 2019

There is plenty of science on the boil at the International Space Station – including an experiment literally designed to expand our knowledge of the boiling process.

Exp 60 crew eat dinner on International Space Station

Get a glimpse into the experiments ESA astronaut Luca Parmitano has been working on over the past two weeks in this fortnightly spotlight on Space Station science.

Easy as Astro Pi

Luca Parmitano launches the 2019-20 European Astro Pi Challenge

The European Astro Pi Challenge is a school project run by ESA in collaboration with the Raspberry Pi Foundation and gives young people the opportunity to write code that runs on mini-computers on board the International Space Station. This year, Luca is the European Astro Pi challenge ambassador and on 12 September he launched this year’s challenge with a video outlining the details and calling for submissions.

Keeping it fluid

As mentioned in a previous Space Station science update, there is new research bubbling up in Europe’s Columbus laboratory. Luca installed the Multiscale Boiling experiment (affectionately known as Rubi) in the Fluid Science Laboratory last month. This is now in full swing and generated its first bubble under controlled conditions.

Multiscale Boiling experiment on Space Station

While the bubbles form, a temperature sensor measures bubble temperature while a high-speed camera records how the bubbles behave and an infrared camera tracks the temperature of the heated region. Scientists will observe and quantify the effect of external forces on the boiling process. 

Reconfiguring the Rubi Multiscale Boiling Experiment

In the weightlessness of space, boiling takes place in slow motion and produces larger bubbles. This allows scientists to observe and measure effects that are too fast and too small on Earth. With this insight and more accurate calculations of the boiling process, industry can produce better and more compact products such as laptops on Earth.

Rubi will run more than 600 tests during its five-month stay on the Space Station.

Astronaut as test subjects

When it comes to a space mission, astronauts truly do give it their all – that includes participating in experiments where they are the guinea pig for space research. Of the more than 50 European experiments Luca is involved in, 12 are classed as human research.

Two of these are new experiments from the Italian space agency ASI: Acoustic Diagnostics and NutrISS. Recently Luca carried out his second in-space sessions of both.

NASA astronaut Andrew Morgan is also lending his ears to the Acoustic Diagnostics experiment, which aims to understand how life in microgravity and on the International Space Station impacts an astronaut’s hearing. In order to do this, the experiment monitors what are known as optoacoustic emissions (OAEs).

Acoustic Diagnostics

OAEs are caused by the motion of inner ear hairs in response to auditory stimulation. That means the measurement is passive. Astronauts put on headphones with a special inner-ear tip that simultaneously plays sound and measures their ears’ reactions.

In the next episode of ESA Explores, we will focus on the different sounds of life on Station. This includes a special snippet of the sounds Luca hears during the Acoustic Diagnostics experiment so make sure you tune in via your favourite podcast platform.

Looking ahead

With the next Soyuz launch scheduled for 25 September, it is not long before Luca and his crewmates will welcome three new arrivals to their orbital outpost.

Soyuz MS-15 prime and backup crew in Baikonur

Russian cosmonaut Oleg Skripochka, NASA astronaut Jessica Meir and United Arab Emirates (UAE) astronaut Hazza Al Mansouri will launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazahkstan and are currently in quarantine in Star City, Russia as they prepare for the mission ahead.

Related links:

Astro Pi Challenge: http://www.esa.int/Education/AstroPI/European_Astro_Pi_Challenge_2019-20_now_open

ESA Explores: https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-abyhy-bfae33

Human and Robotic Exploration: http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration

International Space Station (ISS): https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/International_Space_Station

Images, Video, Text, Credits: ESA/NASA/Roscosmos.

Best regards, Orbiter.ch